Self-Prop Systems

Written by Emphour

A self-propagating system (self-prop system for short) is a system that propagates and sustains itself. This can be a biological organism (as simple as a single-celled organism or as complex as a mammal) or a group of biological organisms, such as an ant colony or a human organization. Individual ants do not consciously work to keep their colony alive, yet they can be said to be self-propagating. The same applies to "groups" of people, such as subcultures or ideologies. Self-prop systems can propagate in two different ways: By increasing in size and power or by creating other systems with similar characteristics.

When talking about self-prop systems, one also speaks of super- and subsystems. The subsystems are subordinate to the supersystems. The individual ant is a subsystem of the ant colony as a supersystem. The subsystems tend to continue to adapt to their supersystem and thus become dependent on it . This dependency can be quite varied. Some bees, such as the true honey bee, are eusocial, they live in colonies that can also be seen as superorganisms. Individual bees in these colonies cannot survive independently. Other bees, such as the carpenter bees, are solitary; they are much less closely bound to their supersystem and are able to survive independently. If sudden changes occur in the supersystem, this can lead to the subsystems no longer being able to survive. This can be seen, for example, in the free market supersystem with individual companies as subsystems. A sudden, serious change in the market leads to the bankruptcy of companies.

Wherever the environment is rich enough, self-prop systems will sooner or later emerge. The nature of competition forces Just as wherever enough people live together, sub-groups will develop sooner or later. sSelf-prop systems to compete amongst themselves for power--the principal determinant of survival-- in thewith only short- term considerations: (a) because they always have to survive in the short term first and foremost. What happens in the long term is logically of secondary importance. The system that has the advantage in the short term will prevail, even if it is inferior in the long term. Therefore what happens in the long-term must be of secondary importance for the purposes of survival. And (b), long-term prediction and control are fundamentally impossible and thus considerations for any long-term effects are merely speculation and not actionable in competition for power and survival. It is not entirely clear what led to the collapse of Easter Island[1], but it is assumed that one important factor was the extensive clear-cutting of trees by the inhabitants. This process can also be observed very clearly on the free market. Here, companies are constantly "fighting for survival" in the short term, with scant regard for long-term consequences.

Several companies and nations are currently competing in the development of AI.[2] This brings short-term gains to the market, but harbors long-term risks that cannot yet be predicted. The effects could be catastrophic.[3] Some scientists are working on finding out whether viruses, for example, become more infectious or deadly when they mutate. This involves deliberately playing around with pathogens. The risks are obvious and so it is only a matter of time before something goes wrong.[4]

Why does this all matter?

The above processes will inevitably lead to the technological system turning the Earth into a planet that is incapable of sustaining life. What is happening with environmental degradation today is not an accident, mere historical chance, or the result of individual bad actors. It is the inevitable result of the processes of competition among self-propagating systems coupled with increasingly powerful means (technology). Through the constant search for new sources of energy, resources and anything that might have any use in and resources in combination with ever increasing energy consumption that can never be contained, self-prop systems will exploit every nook and cranny of the Earth to expand their power in ruthless competition for survival. Even fFuture energy sources and new resources not yetas yet un recognized as such bring new environmental risks and negative impacts from extraction and use. This also applies to supposedly "green" energy sources. All intended and unintended consequences taken together are currently having and will will increasingly have compounding and cascading negative externalities resulting in have catastrophic effects on the biosphere. The aboveIn all likelihood these processes will inevitably lead to the technological system turning the Earth into a planet that is incapable of sustaining life if technology continues to progress..

For an in-depth exploration of the theory of self-propagating systems and its implications for the future of technological civilization, the reader should refer to Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How (2020), Chapter 2, especially pp. 50-63.

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NOTES:

[1] Easter Island is a 163 km² island in the Pacific Ocean. The arrival of the first Polynesians on the island is estimated by researchers to be either around the year 800 or 1200. A flourishing culture had developed on the island, which had also produced the famous "moai" stone sculptures. However, when European settlers first set foot on the island in 1722, the island was barely forested and the population had already dwindled rapidly. The diseases they brought with them and the slave trade reduced the population even further.

[2] Leading in private investment in AI by geographic area are the US, China, UK, Israel, India, South Korea. The AI Index 2023 Annual Report, AI Index Steering Committee, Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, April 2023, page 189.

[3] This ranges from mass layoffs to an existential risk, meaning an irreversible global catastrophe or human extinction.

[4] “Gain-of-function (GOF) research involves experimentation that aims or is expected to (and/or, perhaps, actually does) increase the transmissibility and/or virulence of pathogens. Such research, when conducted by responsible scientists, usually aims to improve understanding of disease causing agents, their interaction with human hosts, and/or their potential to cause pandemics. The ultimate objective of such research is to better inform public health and preparedness efforts and/or development of medical countermeasures. Despite these important potential benefits, GOF research (GOFR) can pose risks regarding biosecurity and biosafety.” Selgelid, Michael J., Gain-of-Function Research: Ethical Analysis, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4996883/